The current volatile financial markets might be reviving uneasy feelings among investors. While completely natural, acting on those emotions could do us more harm than good.
The increase in market volatility is an expression of uncertainty. Sovereign debt issues in Europe and the US, renewed worries over financial institutions and fears of another recession, are leading market participants to apply a higher discount to risky assets.
Risk aversion
So, developed world equities, oil and industrial commodities, emerging markets and commodity-related currencies like the Australian dollar are weakening as risk aversion drives investors to the perceived safe havens of government bonds and gold.
It is all reminiscent of the events of 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the sub-prime mortgage crisis triggered a global market correction. This time, however, the focus of concern has turned from private-sector to public-sector balance sheets.
Market recoveries
There are a few points individual investors should keep in mind:
• Markets are unpredictable and do not always react in the way the experts predict. The recent downgrade by Standard & Poor’s of the US government’s credit rating actually led to a strengthening in US treasury bonds.
• Quitting the equity market at a time like this is like running away from a sale. While prices have been discounted to reflect higher risk, that’s another way of saying expected returns are higher. And while the media headlines proclaim that ‘investors are dumping stocks’, remember long-term investors are buying them.
• Market recoveries can come just as quickly. In March 2009 – when market sentiment was last this bad – the S&P 500 in America turned and put in seven consecutive months of gains totalling almost 80 per cent while the FTSE added 22% over the course of the year – the biggest annual gain since 1997. This is not to predict a similarly vertically-shaped recovery is likely, but it is a reminder of the danger for long-term investors of turning paper losses into real ones and paying for the risk without waiting around for the recovery.
Spreading risk
• Never forget the power of diversification. While equity markets have had a rocky time in 2011, fixed interest markets have flourished – making the overall losses to balanced fund investors a little more tolerable. Diversification spreads risk and can lessen the bumps in the road.
• The world economy is forever changing, and new forces are replacing old ones. As the IMF noted recently, while advanced economies seek to repair public and financial balance sheets, emerging market economies are thriving. A globally diversified portfolio, like the Cavendish investment portfolio, takes account of these shifts.
• Nothing lasts forever. Just as smart investors temper their enthusiasm in booms, they keep a reserve of optimism during busts. And just as loading up on risk when prices are high can leave you exposed to a correction, dumping risk altogether when prices are low means you can miss the turn when it comes. As always in life, moderation is a good policy.
Emerging value
The market volatility can be concerning but through discipline, diversification, and understanding how markets work, the rollercoaster ride can be made bearable. At some point, value will re-emerge, risk appetites will re-awaken, and for those who acknowledged their emotions without acting on them, relief will replace anxiety.



